This year in politics has been a crazy, unpredictable ride, thanks in large part to Donald Trump, but that isn’t stopping political scientists from using data to try to predict the outcome of this year’s election.
One man, Helmut North, has attempted to do just that using a statistical model that had been correct for all but one election in the last 104 years.
The results — even for the most passionate Donald Trump supporter — are hard to believe. The perpetually correct model not only has Donald Trump winning the presidency, but the odds of him winning are huge.
The model doesn’t just predict a win, or even a landslide. It predicts, by all measures, a Donald Trump blowout.
To see just how high his chances are, see the next page:
Joel Schudiske All “real science and math”….do you mean NBC’s math? Politico’s math? The Washington Post’s math? The New York times math? hmmmmm. They also say that we have a very low unemployment rate, which we know darn well is a bald faced lie. So…… no…..I don’t trust their “math”. they aren’t using “math”….they are using liberal voodoo….. smoke and mirrors,…..trying to get Hillary donors. You can’t trust their math.
I think that gold star has been debunked quite successfully.
Welll they want you to think that, for sure
He really hasn’t alienated anyone but a bunch of RINO establishment republicans, and who cares about them.
It could be. There are so many out there that are being silent right now, but that will vote for him when the time comes. They said Ronald Reagan couldn’t do it, and he did.
It also does not take into account the MASSIVe number of voters that are not being counted right now….who don’t come out until after labor day, and I think those numbers are going to come out in favor of Trump.
Don’t forget about the rest of the country, Debbie, because they sure as hell won’t forget. Trump’s erratic behavior is noted far beyond the GOP and it’s self-imposed inner struggles.
Ok Debbie Kaye, we are going to use this as a teaching moment. Yes, both sides have their own media outlets that make them look better than they are. However, the math and science I am referring to is by unbiased organizations like quinnipiac, pew research center and Monmouth. If you have not heard of them, look them up. They only provide research, they do not make predictions or have bias. And yes they all support Trump is most certainly not going to win by a large margin if he wins at all. Which if you look, his latest group of lies has made his number decline. Don’t go to Fox or CNN for the news, go to the source like I have.
Now on to the claim about the unemployment rate. It seems like you haven’t done your research at the source and just regurgitated Fox News. Here are the facts from the source. You do have something right, there are two parts to the unemployment rate…those on unemployment and those who’s benefits have run out so they don’t show up. However, again facts directly from the source do not back up your claims. So here are the unbiased facts….when Obama took office the unemployment rate was 9.8%. That DID NOT include those who had their benefits run out. The rate now is right about 4.9%(that does not include those who’s benefits have run out either). Even if you put those who benefits have run out, the total unemployed rate is around 6.6%. So, has Obama do a fantastic job, probably not. However I don’t know about you but in my math class 6.6 is better than 9.8%. And if you add the unemployed that had their benefits run out to the 9.8%, so you can compare apples to apples, then the figures look even more favorable to Obama. Now, these are facts not from an news outlet, but directly from the source. Which if you want to be an informed voter, my suggestion to you is….stop believing FOX news or CNN and do your own research from the source. I hope this helps.
i hope he does
Please God let that be true