Princeton Study: Trump Has 97% chance of Clinching Nomination — Even if he LOSES Indiana Primary


Perhaps all the talk of a broken/contested convention is just wishful thinking by the mainstream media.  Ohio Governor John Kasich obviously has 0% chance of getting to 1,237 delegates — and after Trump's Northeast sweep on Tuesday, Cruz has no chance either.  According to a Princeton study it's not only possible for Donald Trump to clinch the nomination before the convention, but almost a guarantee.

Put through the PEC delegate simulator, the median delegate count is 1333 (interquartile range 1304-1339). The probability of getting to 1237 delegates is 98%

What if we assume that Trump will lose Indiana? In that case the median drops to 1284 delegates (interquartile range 1278-1287). The probability of getting to 1237 is now 97%

The 1% change in probability is inconsequential. The main effect of forcing a Cruz win in Indiana is to reduce uncertainty in the delegate count[…]

The mainstream media and the Cruz campaign claims that if Donald Trump does not win Indiana then we are surely headed for a contested convention.  According to Princeton's study, that theory just doesn't hold water.  It is doubtful that Donald Trump is shaking in his boots over a 97% chance of winning the nomination.

Source: Princeton Election Consortium



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