This year in politics has been a crazy, unpredictable ride, thanks in large part to Donald Trump, but that isn’t stopping political scientists from using data to try to predict the outcome of this year’s election.
One man, Helmut North, has attempted to do just that using a statistical model that had been correct for all but one election in the last 104 years.
The results — even for the most passionate Donald Trump supporter — are hard to believe. The perpetually correct model not only has Donald Trump winning the presidency, but the odds of him winning are huge.
The model doesn’t just predict a win, or even a landslide. It predicts, by all measures, a Donald Trump blowout.
To see just how high his chances are, see the next page:
Well the fucking electorate better get on board
Great go Trump all the way to the White House.
Question “political scientist claims his model has been right on all election for 104 years except. Exactly how old is he?
You mean the gold star family with a dad who’s job is to sneak Muslims in the country and is on Hilary’s take or the mom who when visiting Obama wasn’t wearing any garb what so ever but now all the sudden is a mute Muslim wife?
Who the hell is Gary Johnson!?
Delusional
Work ay the poles for a change.
Lmao! And that crooked$#%&!@*Hillary is gonna win!
No way!
While I certainly don’t want to see Hillary as POTUS, it might be important to know that this is based on the Primary Model, developed by Helmut Norpoth. It was introduced in 1996….which, while a long time ago, certainly wasn’t 104 years ago.
The Primary Model, that has accurately predicted the past 5 (NOT 25) elections, shows (with a stated 87% -99% certainty) Donald Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% . on average, the model has been off by just over 3 points on either side… Not exactly a HUGE blown out”. If Trump is over predicted by 3 points and Clinton is under predicted by 3 points (based on the stated margin of error), we could actually see a Clinton win of 50.5 to 47.5.